The Missing Link: Part 2

2 hours ago
4 min read

Last week we released some insights about how the Make % from 5-10 feet actually correlates to Total Strokes Gained Putting.

We learned that there is some correlation between those two metrics, but that then begged a question... How do the other metrics stand up against Strokes Gained Putting? If we're not tracking that number, what number should we track? And, per the usual, I kept digging. So this week we have three more metrics this week to try and bridge the gap and find the link between a basic stat that you can track and the ever popular Strokes Gained Putting. This week, we'll compare Strokes Gained Putting Rankings to: -- Putting Average

-- 3-putt Avoidance

-- 3-putts Per Round

The results were truly surprising.

Putting Average

This metric tracks putts per green in regulation. The correlation to the Make Percentage from 5-10 feet was nearly identical. That means that this metric has a strong correlation to Strokes Gained Putting as well. But, as with all numbers, there are likely some exceptions to the rule.

Of all the players on the list, Collin Morikawa is the most fascinating case. He’s ranked 23rd in Putting Average, so our initial thought would be that he's a decent putter.

And you'd also be wrong. Dead wrong.

He's a lowly 123rd in Strokes Gained Putting.

He's 147th in Make % from 5-10’ - a range that if you're struggling, will absolutely crush your SGP. It's easy to lose shots relative to the field if you're missing in that range.

The Wheels Keep Turning

That discrepancy led me to think about the percentage of players that reside in the bottom 30 for both Putting Average and SGP. That number came back at 43%. While it seems reasonable, I went back and checked this number for the Make % (5-10') and found that 50% of the bottom 30 overlapped comparing those categories. While we have a lot of golf left to play out this year, it suggests that Make % (5-10') is a stronger indicator of a poor putter than Putting Average.

However, we should note is that in Putting Average, there are a lot fewer instances of players finding themselves ranked in the Top 30 in that metric and bottom 30 in SGP or vice versa. In fact, there were only two in this category.

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So What About 3-Putts?

You're probably wondering how those stack up. I was too. And this one actually shocked me.

3 Putt Avoidance is considered a meaningful statistic. And rightfully so. 3-putting sucks and no one likes it. However, the math is showing us a much lower correlation between this metric and SGP.

In fact, one player is ranked 15th in 3-Putt Avoidance yet lingers at 155th in SGP. So while it's a meaningful metric, it doesn't really correlate well to having a good SGP. And that took me to another 3-putt metric. 3-Putts Per Round

So this metric must directly relate to SGP. The first one wasn't really close, but this one has to...

Nope.

The correlation isn't any stronger than that of the 3-Putt Avoidance.

That's simply fascinating.

Now, you do have players like Jake Knapp, Jacob Bridgeman, Vince Whaley, Sam Burns, and Beau Hossler all rank among the best SGP players on tour while also being among those who 3-putt the least. When we see patterns like that, we'd be inclined to think that the two metrics are more closely related than the number suggests.

The reasons why the number as a whole isn't a good indicator of SGP, is that there is "a lot of noise" in the middle part of the data collection. Towards the middle of the pack, there's a lot of players who don't 3-putt often and finish close to 0.000 SGP.

It's just dozens of players clustered between 0.40 and 0.55 per round where tiny differences in the number don’t separate good putters from bad ones in any meaningful way. That cluster drags the correlation down.

But when you look at the extremes — the players who are genuinely elite at avoiding 3-putts. As for the other end of the spectrum, players like Aldrich Potgieter, Taylor Pendrith, and Johnny Keefer are near the top of the 3-putt list while sitting mid-table in SGP. This could be from their 3-putts coming from long range rather than inside 40 feet.

The Wrap Up

So here's where we are so far in our efforts to find The Missing Link to SGP. Avoiding 3-putts is a fair signal of putting prowess, but just because you have them doesn't inherently make you a bad putter. There are too many other external factors like proximity that would cause you only lose a small amount if you do 3 putt. This is perhaps why a lot of my college teams are seeing success reduicng their 3-putts from inside 40 feet.

And the Putting Avearage? Well that didn't tell us a ton more than the Make % (5-10 feet). And I'm not saying that it isn't a strong correlation, but perhaps not strong enough to be our Missing Link...

As for next week, short putts anyone?

If you'd like to view any of the full reports, you'll need to join my Patreon page HERE!